‘This crisis is different’: the dramatic rebound in the global economy
From an economic point of view, it is almost as if the last year was just a bad dream. As recently as October, the IMF was warning that coronavirus will cause “lasting damage” to living standards across the world with any recovery likely to be “long, uneven and uncertain”. Yet the forecast it released this week is very different. By 2024, the IMF now believes, the US economy is likely to be stronger than it had predicted before the pandemic. For most advanced economies, it says, there will be only limited scars from the crisis. Such a positive transformation in the global economic outlook within the space of just six months is extremely rare.
The City of London in lockdown after a year of the pandemic. Although the effects of Covid-19 are still being felt, the IMF predicts that advanced economies are on course to lose less than 1 per cent of output by 2024 compared with its pre-pandemic forecasts
It has underpinned an upbeat mood at the virtual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank even though everyone knows the pandemic is not yet over. The consensus view is that with the right policies in place, the world can beat Covid-19. A new spirit of international co-operation might even resolve longstanding conflicts over issues as thorny as the taxation of multinationals in a globalised world — a cause the Biden administration is now taking up. “It’s remarkable how quickly the consensus has shifted in only six months,” said Neil Shearing, chief economist of Capital Economics, a consultancy. It is now becoming clear that the pessimism last autumn about the longer term outlook for advanced economies was an “intellectual failure”, he said, because most economists “reached back to the financial crisis and applied the lessons from that period, but this crisis is different”.  Not everything in the global economy is rosy, of course. Amid the new optimism, there is also concern that some poorer countries and some people within wealthier countries will not share in the improved outlook. In what is becoming something of a tradition, Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF managing director, borrowed this week from Russian literature to characterise the outlook. “Leo Tolstoy in Anna Karenina captures very well where the world economy is today,” she said, quoting the novelist: “All the variety of life is made up of light and shadow.”

Fiscal and monetary heft

Advanced economies, and especially the US, represent the light in the world. Since last October, economic assessments of rich countries have been revised sharply higher with the remarkable turnround based on three forces, none of which were easy to see in the autumn. The first is that countries adapted much better than expected to lockdowns, restrictions and social distancing in the second wave of the virus than the first. Instead of repeating the double-digit plunges in output of the second quarter of 2020, households and companies have adapted well, learning to work more effectively from home, shop online and enjoy leisure pursuits digitally. In a new paper on the economic effects of lockdowns in Europe, the authors Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani Ferry, said: “The evidence, however, is clear that these countries were able to contain [virus] contagion at a lower output cost during the second confinement.”
With most countries having upward revisions to data for economic data in the second half of 2020 and at the start of 2021, the starting point for the forecasts of advanced economies has been much better than feared. A second boost to economic performance has been the willingness and ability of North America, Europe and Japan to use the power of government to support incomes through the crisis even when they could not go to work. Central banks helped with huge increases in purchases of government debt, facilitating the expansive use of fiscal policy during the crisis. “Without them, without those fiscal and monetary measures, the global contraction last year would have been three times worse. This could have been another Great Depression,” Georgieva said.
A closed restaurant in Nice during lockdown. The willingness of the EU to support businesses during the crisis even when they couldn’t open has been a boost to the bloc’s economic performance
The third force behind the upgraded forecasts was nothing to do with economics, but the ability of science to deliver effective vaccines that point the way back towards more normal life in the years ahead. In Europe, doubts over the safety of the AstraZeneca jab and the chaotic rollout of vaccinations could hold its economies back in 2021, but this is unlikely to cause much lasting damage, according to the IMF’s forecasts. Together these improvements in the outlook have led the fund to predict that, as a whole, advanced economies are on course to lose less than 1 per cent of output by 2024 compared with its pre-pandemic forecasts — an outcome that seemed barely plausible last October. The US is top of the pack and now has forecasts showing it on a stronger path than before the pandemic, but other advanced economies are not far behind in the medium term.

Emerging concerns

The real benefit of an absence of lasting scars from this crisis, in stark contrast to the global financial crisis of 2008-09, is that the advanced world can also look forward to largely self-correcting public finances. On the face of it, this might seem surprising. Deficits in many countries were higher in 2020 than at any time since the second world war and average net public debt among advanced G20 countries is set to rise from 82.1 per cent of national income in 2019 to 103.2 per cent in 2021. But the fiscal forecasts then show debt levels stabilising, rising only to 105.7 per cent by 2026 as economies recover their lost ground. Unlike in the 2010s, austerity or tax rises are not expected to be needed to repair public finances in this crisis. Instead, any tax increases, the IMF said, should be on the rich and companies that prospered to show “solidarity” with those that had not been so fortunate.
An man in Manila, unemployed as a result of coronavirus, receives cash aid. The coronavirus crisis has hit emerging economies hard
The optimism in the economic outlook is reflected in advanced economy equity markets, pushing many to new highs this week. It also is increasingly corroborated by strong economic data. Global purchasing managers’ indices hit a six-year high in March, highlighting a “strong” global economy displaying “resilience” in both manufacturing and the service sectors, according to James Pomeroy, global economist at HSBC. For all the good news, however, it is important to remember that these data for advanced economies are far from the whole global story. Emerging economies became a larger share of total global output during the 2008-09 financial crisis and now account for 58 per cent of the global economy, according to the IMF. In emerging economies, especially excluding China, the coronavirus crisis has hit hard. This has delayed the catch-up of their living standards with those of the advanced world and put them on a path of significantly slower growth than expected before the pandemic. These are the large “shadows” in the global outlook Georgieva worried about, where societies were not rich enough to shield their populations from the income losses resulting from Covid-19, often did not have sufficient credibility in financial markets to borrow heavily, had worse health systems and could not push themselves to the front of the queue for coronavirus vaccines. While emerging economies sailed mostly unharmed through troubled waters of the global financial crisis, the coronavirus crisis could leave their economies on average 4 per cent smaller in 2024 than expected before the pandemic, the IMF forecasts. Losses in Latin America will be over 6 per cent and almost 8 per cent in emerging Asia outside China. Economic setbacks in emerging markets always raise fears of debt crises and capital flight, especially if advanced economies snap back so quickly that central banks are forced to raise interest rates earlier than expected to deal with emerging inflationary pressures. Robin Brooks, chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, representing the world’s largest banks, worries that as the data from advanced economies continue to surpass expectations, market interest rates in the US and other countries will rise, triggering an exodus of funds and increasing pressure on emerging economies. Even though their fundamentals are stronger than in 2013, the last time this process happened, he said it was likely that the improved outlooks in advanced economies put pressure on financial flows to developing ones, especially Turkey, Brazil and Columbia. “Emerging markets are not yet out of the woods,” Brooks says. The global economic narrative is therefore one of celebration that the coronavirus crisis appears much less serious than feared alongside a recognition that the winners from the crisis need to have regard for those that have suffered more, both within their societies and around the world. But there is also still a nagging fear that perhaps the world is now too optimistic in general — just as it was too pessimistic six months ago.
With new variants of the virus potentially limiting the effectiveness of vaccines and requiring repeatedly updated jabs, inefficient rollout of inoculations in some advanced economies and only modest access to vaccines in most emerging economies, the outlook might soon become more troubled again in what a new paper from the Peterson Institute for International Economics calls the “pandemic age”. “In such an age, global economic and health policy co-operation is not a luxury or an idealistic dream. It is a necessity,” says Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute. One of the most important elements of that co-operation will be determining when countries should begin to roll back their economic support packages as they lift restrictions. These decisions spill over from one country to another so, not only do governments need to worry about the domestic timing, the international dimension is almost as important. Go too fast in this process and there will be excessive pain alongside higher unemployment and unnecessary bankruptcies. Yet too slow removal of support risks creating an unsustainable boom in the short term followed by a bust alongside highly unstable financial conditions for emerging economies. The consensus view in 2021 is that the world made a mess of this handover from support to self-reliance in 2010 after the global financial crisis, imposing austerity too early before economies were ready. Erik Nielsen, chief economist of UniCredit, says the main risk is still the virus and possible variants. “We’re not over it yet and that has to be a major, major risk.” He is also worried the European Central Bank will begin to tighten monetary policy too early and that trade tensions, especially with China, might flare up again.  Timing the exit from coronavirus crisis support is just as difficult. So, while the broad direction of travel has been positive for six months, the global economy remains a highly uncertain and risky place as it emerges from the pandemic.
从经济角度来看,去年几乎就像是一场噩梦。 就在10月,IMF还警告称,冠状病毒将对世界各地的生活水平造成“持久损害”,任何复苏都可能是“漫长、不平衡和不确定的”。 然而,它本周发布的预测却截然不同。国际货币基金组织现在认为,到2024年,美国经济可能会比疫情发生前的预测更为强劲。它说,对于大多数发达经济体来说,危机只会留下有限的疤痕。 在短短6个月内,全球经济前景出现如此积极的转变,实属罕见。
这巩固了国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)虚拟的春季会议上的乐观情绪,尽管每个人都知道大流行尚未结束。现在的共识是,只要有正确的政策,全世界都可以战胜Covid-19。一种新的国际合作精神,甚至可能解决在全球化世界对跨国公司征税等棘手问题上的长期冲突——拜登政府目前正在着手解决这一问题。 咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔•希尔林(Neil Shearing)表示:“仅仅6个月时间,共识就发生了如此迅速的转变,这令人惊讶。”他表示,现在越来越清楚的是,去年秋天对发达经济体长期前景的悲观情绪是一种“学术上的失败”,因为多数经济学家“回顾了金融危机,并吸取了那段时期的教训,但这次危机不同”。 当然,并非全球经济的一切都是乐观的。在新的乐观情绪中,也有人担心一些较贫穷国家和较富裕国家的一些人不会认同这种改善的前景。国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯塔利娜•格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)最近延续了经济学界的一个非正式的传统:借用俄罗斯文学作品来描述经济前景。“列夫·托尔斯泰(Leo Tolstoy)在《安娜·卡列尼娜》(Anna Karenina)中很好地抓住了当今世界经济的现状,”她说,并引用了这位小说家的话:“生活中各种各样的事物都是由光明和阴影构成的。”


发达经济体,尤其是美国,代表着世界之光。自去年10月以来,对富裕国家的经济评估被大幅调高,出现了显著的好转,这是基于三种力量,而这三种力量在秋季都不容易看到。 第一,与第一波相比,各国在第二波病毒中对封锁、限制和社会隔离的适应比预期要好得多。家庭和企业没有重蹈2020年第二季度产出两位数下降的覆辙,而是很好地适应了形势,学会了在家更有效地工作、网上购物和数字化享受休闲活动。在一篇关于封锁对欧洲经济影响的新论文中,作者奥利维尔•布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)和让•皮萨尼•费里(Jean Pisani Ferry)表示:“证据清楚地表明,在第二次封锁期间,这些国家能够以较低的产出成本遏制(病毒)传染。”
鉴于多数国家将在2020年下半年和2021年初向上修正经济数据,发达经济体的预测起点比人们担心的要好得多。 对经济表现的第二个提振是,北美、欧洲和日本有意愿、也有能力利用政府权力在危机期间维持收入,即使人们无法工作。各国央行大幅增加了政府债券的购买,为危机期间财政政策的广泛使用提供了便利。 “如果没有这些措施,没有那些财政和货币措施,去年的全球经济收缩将是现在的三倍。这可能是另一场大萧条。
提高预测的第三个因素与经济学无关,而是科学进步带来的提供有效疫苗的能力,这些疫苗为未来几年回归正常生活指明了方向。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测,在欧洲,人们对阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)疫苗安全性的怀疑,以及疫苗推广的混乱,可能会阻碍2021年的经济发展,但这不太可能造成太大的持久损害。 这些前景的改善使得该基金组织预测,作为一个整体,发达经济体到2024年的产出损失将低于其流行前预测的1%--这一结果在去年10月看来几乎不可信。美国是其中的佼佼者,现在的预测显示,它的发展势头比大流行前更强劲,但其他发达经济体在中期内也不甘落后。


与2008-09年的全球金融危机形成鲜明对比的是,此次危机没有留下持久伤疤的真正好处是,发达国家也可以期待公共财政在很大程度上自我修正。 从表面上看,这似乎令人惊讶。许多国家在2020年的赤字高于二战以来的任何时候,而20国集团(G20)发达国家的平均净公共债务与国民收入之比,将从2019年的82.1%升至2021年的103.2%。 但随后的财政预测显示,随着各经济体收复失地,债务水平将企稳,到2026年仅升至105.7%。与2010年代不同的是,在这次危机中,预计不需要紧缩或增税来修复公共财政。相反,国际货币基金组织表示,任何增税都应该针对富裕阶层和企业,以显示与那些不那么幸运的人的“团结”。
对经济前景的乐观情绪,反映在发达经济体股市上,推动许多股市本周再创新高。强劲的经济数据也日益证实了这一点。汇丰(HSBC)全球经济学家詹姆斯•波默罗伊(James Pomeroy)表示,3月份全球采购经理人指数创下6年新高,凸显出全球经济“强劲”,制造业和服务业均显示出“弹性”。 然而,尽管有这些好消息,我们必须记住,发达经济体的这些数据远非全球故事的全部。根据国际货币基金组织的数据,新兴经济体在2008-09年金融危机期间在全球总产出中的份额变得更大,目前占全球经济的58%。在新兴经济体,尤其是不包括中国在内的新兴经济体,冠状病毒危机造成的冲击很大。这使它们的生活水平迟迟不能赶上发达国家的水平,并使它们的增长速度大大低于新冠疫情发生前的预期。 这些是格奥尔基耶娃担心的全球前景中的巨大“阴影”,社会不够富裕,无法保护其人民免受新冠病毒造成的收入损失,在金融市场上往往没有足够的信誉,无法大举借贷,卫生系统更差,无法排在冠状病毒疫苗接种队伍的最前面。 国际货币基金组织预测,虽然新兴经济体基本上安然无恙地度过了全球金融危机的困境,但冠状病毒危机可能会使它们的经济在2024年比流行病发生前的预期平均减少4%。拉美地区的损失将超过6%,中国以外的亚洲新兴市场损失将接近8%。 新兴市场的经济挫折总是会引发对债务危机和资本外逃的担忧,尤其是如果发达经济体迅速复苏,以致央行被迫比预期提前升息,以应对日益显现的通胀压力。代表全球各大银行的国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席经济学家罗宾•布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)担心,随着发达经济体的数据继续超出预期,美国和其它国家的市场利率将会上升,引发资金外流,给新兴经济体带来更大压力。 他表示,即使它们的基本面比上一次发生这一过程的2013年更为强劲,但发达经济体前景的改善很可能给流向发展中经济体的资金带来压力,尤其是土耳其、巴西和哥伦比亚。“新兴市场还没有走出困境,”布鲁克斯说。 因此,关于全球经济,一方面要庆幸冠状病毒危机似乎远没有人们担心的那么严重,同时也要承认危机的赢家需要关心其社会内部和世界各地遭受更大痛苦的人。 但也有一种令人不安的担心,即也许现在的世界总体上过于乐观--正如六个月前过于悲观一样。
病毒的新变种可能会限制疫苗的有效性,并要求反复更新疫苗接种;在一些发达经济体,疫苗接种的推广效率低下;而在大多数新兴经济体,获得疫苗的渠道有限。全球经济可能很快会再次变得陷入麻烦。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的一篇新论文将这种前景称为“大流行时代”。 “在这样一个时代,全球经济和卫生政策合作不再是一种奢望,也不再是一个理想主义的梦想,而是势在必行,”彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当•波森(Adam Posen)表示。 这种合作的最重要因素之一,将是确定各国应在解除限制的同时,何时开始缩减其经济支持计划。这些决定会从一个国家传递到另一个国家,因此,政府不仅需要担心国内的时机,国际层面也几乎同样重要。 在这个过程中,如果走得太快,就会出现过度的痛苦,伴随着更高的失业率和不必要的破产。然而,如果取消支持的速度太慢,则有可能在短期内造成不可持续的繁荣,然后是萧条,与此同时,新兴经济体的金融状况也极不稳定。2021年的共识是,全球金融危机后,世界在2010年把从支持到自力更生的交接弄得一团糟,在经济体还没有准备好之前就过早地实施了紧缩政策。 意大利联合信贷银行(UniCredit)首席经济学家尼尔森(Erik Nielsen)说,主要风险仍然是病毒及其可能的变种。“疫情还没有结束,这肯定是一个很大很大的风险。”他还担心,欧洲央行会过早开始收紧货币政策,贸易紧张(尤其是与中国的贸易紧张)可能再次加剧。 退出冠状病毒危机支持的时机也同样很难确定。因此,虽然半年来大方向向好,但全球经济在走出疫情的过程中,仍然存在很大的不确定性和风险。
Spain slashes growth forecast after third wave of Covid cases
The Spanish government has slashed its growth forecast for this year from 9.8 per cent to 6.5 per cent, citing the impact of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic and adding that some economic activity due to the EU’s €750bn recovery fund will now be delayed until next year. In revised figures issued on Friday, the ministry of economy said it expected a strong recovery as of the second half of this year, leading to 2021 growth of 6.5 per cent and 2022 growth of 7 per cent. Spain is one of the industrialised economies worst hit by the pandemic, contracting by 10.8 per cent in 2020. Previously the government had forecast an increase in output of as much as 9.8 per cent for this year, with the EU funds delivering 2.6 per cent of extra growth on top of underlying growth of 7.2 per cent. Most outside bodies had forecast considerably lower rates of growth for 2021. In its statement on Friday, the economy ministry said that Spain’s third coronavirus wave, which peaked in January, and the worst winter storm for more than half a century had slowed growth at the start of the year and delayed economic recovery by a quarter. It added that some of the growth due to the EU recovery fund that it had anticipated for this year would now occur in 2022. Spain expects to receive €140bn in grants and loans from the fund over the next six years. Many officials and economists say the country’s use of the resources – and how efficiently they are invested – could determine Spain’s economic destiny for a generation.
西班牙政府以第三波冠状病毒大流行的影响为由,将今年的增长预测从9.8%下调至6.5%,并补充说,由于欧盟7500亿欧元的复苏基金,一些经济活动现在将推迟到明年。 经济部在上周五发布的修订数据中表示,预计截至今年下半年,西班牙经济将强劲复苏,导致2021年增长6.5%,2022年增长7%。 西班牙是受疫情影响最严重的工业化经济体之一,2020年将收缩10.8%。 此前政府预测今年产出增幅高达9.8%,欧盟基金在7.2%的基本增长基础上提供2.6%的额外增长。 多数外界机构预测2021年的增长率大大降低。 经济部在上周五的声明中表示,西班牙在1月达到顶峰的第三次冠状病毒浪潮,以及半个多世纪以来最严重的冬季风暴,使今年年初的经济增长放缓,经济复苏推迟了四分之一。 它补充说,由于今年预期的欧盟复苏基金的一些增长现在将发生在2022年。西班牙预计在未来六年内将从该基金获得1400亿欧元的赠款和贷款。许多官员和经济学家表示,该国对这些资源的使用--以及它们的投资效率--可能决定西班牙一代人的经济命运。
FT data analysis: how vaccines have affected the pandemic
Vaccines are working well at protecting people from Covid-19, but many countries are nonetheless struggling to emerge from the pandemic as the spread of more transmissible variants hampers progress, according to an FT analysis of data from around the world. The latest figures from the UK show that rates of cases, hospital admissions and deaths continue to fall across both the most- and least-vaccinated age-groups, though the decline is much steeper among the elderly, strongly suggesting that vaccines are accelerating the shrinking of the UK’s epidemic. More than 10,000 British lives are believed to have been saved by vaccines so far in 2021, according to data released on Thursday by Public Health England. In France the situation is markedly different due to the recent arrival and rapid proliferation of the B.1.1.7 variant, combined with a slower vaccine rollout. While the trajectories of cases, hospitalisations and deaths all look rosier among the elderly than the young, the more transmissible variant has turned declining rates into increases, among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups alike. The data show how during the earlier stages of a vaccination campaign, the jab works well at reducing levels of infection among the vaccinated relative to the unprotected, but it is powerless to change the direction of a growing outbreak. Once countries reach herd immunity, any such resurgences will be prevented, but until that point they remain vulnerable to new outbreaks.
根据英国《金融时报》对世界各地数据的分析,疫苗在保护人们免受Covid-19感染方面发挥了良好作用,但由于更多可传播变种的传播阻碍了进展,许多国家仍在努力摆脱疫情。 来自英国的最新数据显示,在接种疫苗最多和最少的年龄组中,病例率、入院率和死亡人数都在持续下降,不过老年人的下降幅度要大得多,这有力地表明,疫苗正在加速英国疫情的缩小。根据英格兰公共卫生局周四公布的数据,2021年至今,相信有超过1万条英国人的生命被疫苗拯救。 在法国,由于B.1.1.7变种近期到来并迅速扩散,加上疫苗推广速度较慢,情况明显不同。虽然老年人的病例、住院和死亡情况看起来都比年轻人好,但在接种和未接种疫苗的群体中,传染性更强的变异体已经将下降的比率变成了上升。 数据显示,在疫苗接种运动的早期阶段,注射疫苗能很好地降低接种者相对于未接种者的感染水平,但它无力改变疫情的发展方向。一旦各国达到群体免疫力,任何此类疾病的复发都将被防止,但在这之前,它们仍然容易受到新的疾病爆发的影响。
AstraZeneca cuts weekly vaccine delivery to EU
AstraZeneca has slashed the number of Covid-19 shots it will deliver to EU nations this week by almost half, causing a hold-up that the company claimed would be temporary and was because of delayed testing of a batch of vaccines. The company now expects to deliver 1.3m doses to the EU's 27 member states, plus Iceland and Norway, down from the 2.6m forecast it made in mid-March, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. The cut is equivalent to a reduction of 49 per cent and is evenly distributed across countries, according to the documents. AstraZeneca said it told the European Commission and member states last week that the batch required testing and would be delivered soon. It said it would still meet its target to deliver 70m doses in the second quarter. “Weekly deliveries typically show small fluctuations depending on a number of operational factors, such as distribution or completion of quality and safety testing,” the company said. The latest delay has caused frustration as it comes after the company had dramatically revised down its forecasts for EU deliveries in recent months, delivering about a quarter of maximum targeted supplies in the first quarter and more than halving projections for the second. Any AstraZeneca vaccine shortfalls would be a fresh blow to the EU’s vaccination campaign — which has lagged behind those in the UK, US and Israel — although the jab is less important to the bloc’s rollout for the second quarter of the year than it was for the first. Read more here
阿斯利康将本周向欧盟国家交付的Covid-19针剂数量削减了近一半,导致该公司声称将暂时搁置,是因为一批疫苗的测试延迟。 据《金融时报》看到的文件显示,该公司现在预计将向欧盟27个成员国,加上冰岛和挪威交付130万剂疫苗,低于3月中旬预测的260万剂。 据文件显示,此次削减相当于减少49%,并且均匀分布在各国。 阿斯利康表示,它上周告诉欧盟委员会和成员国,这批产品需要测试,并将很快交付。它表示,它仍将实现其在第二季度交付7000万剂的目标。 "每周的交付通常会出现小幅波动,这取决于一些运营因素,如配送或完成质量和安全测试,"该公司说。 最新的延迟引起了沮丧,因为它是在该公司在最近几个月大幅下调其对欧盟交付的预测之后,在第一季度交付了大约四分之一的最大目标供应量,并将第二季度的预测减少了一半以上。 任何阿斯利康的疫苗短缺都将对欧盟的疫苗接种活动造成新的打击--欧盟的疫苗接种活动已经落后于英国、美国和以色列的疫苗接种活动--尽管该疫苗接种对该集团今年第二季度的推广活动的重要性低于第一季度。 在这里阅读更多
London’s west end restaurants prepare for al fresco-only dining
London’s restaurants and pubs that have been closed to the public since December are finalising preparations for a desperately needed return of visitors next week. Hospitality venues across England will be allowed to serve customers outdoors from Monday under the latest loosening of coronavirus lockdown restrictions. In the capital’s once-bustling west end, landlord Shaftesbury said it would have outdoor dining space available for 3,000 visitors across 165 restaurants and cafes. Outdoor events and art installations would be put on in the months ahead to coax back visitors, the company said, while security would be in place to issue “friendly reminders regarding social distancing”. London had been “disproportionately hit” by the pandemic, according to the Heart of London Business Alliance, which represents 500 businesses and 100 property owners.  Footfall in the west end was 81 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, said Ros Morgan, chief executive. She called on government to produce a “bespoke recovery plan for London”. “When London succeeds so does the rest of the UK.”
伦敦自12月以来一直对公众关闭的餐馆和酒吧正在为下周急需的游客回归做最后的准备。 根据冠状病毒锁定限制的最新松动,全英格兰的酒店场所将从周一开始允许在户外为顾客服务。 在首都曾经繁华的西区,房东Shaftesbury表示,将在165家餐厅和咖啡馆为3000名游客提供户外用餐空间。 该公司表示,未来几个月将举办户外活动和艺术装置,以哄回游客,同时将有安保人员发布“关于社交距离的友好提醒”。 根据代表500家企业和100家业主的伦敦中心商业联盟(Heart of London Business Alliance)的说法,伦敦受到疫情“不成比例的打击”。  首席执行官罗斯-摩根说,西区的人流量比流行前的水平低81%。她呼吁政府制定一个“为伦敦量身定做的恢复计划”。"当伦敦成功时,英国其他地区也会成功。"
US producer price growth jumps past forecasts
Prices that US businesses receive for their products and services grew more than anticipated in March, potentially stoking market fears of a rise in inflation as the economy rebounds from the pandemic. The producer price index advanced by a seasonally adjusted 1 per cent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists had expected the figure to remain steady at its February reading of 0.5 per cent. The increase was driven by energy prices, reflecting a sharp uptick in the cost of gasoline. Food prices also moved higher. Core PPI, which excludes some services and volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.6 per cent versus a 0.2 per cent increase in February. Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers said that higher input costs would probably lead to an increase in prices paid by consumers, adding “more evidence that inflation should pop in coming months during the transition into the post-pandemic economy.” “Ultimately, we expect this inflationary spike to be temporary as the supply of materials picks up later this year in response to the elimination of Covid workplace restrictions with ramped up hiring and total production.” Minutes for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that most officials believed the risks to the inflation outlook were “broadly balanced,” in a sign that the central bank was shrugging off fears of an overheating economy after the passage of a $1.9tn spending bill. Last month, the Fed raised its forecasts for both economic growth and inflation but said it did not expect to raise interest rates until at least 2024. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.69 per cent as investors waited for the PPI report. The benchmark yield was recently up 0.04 percentage points to 1.67 per cent. Producer prices were up 4.2 per cent year on year on an unadjusted basis, the biggest rise since September 2011. However, the annualised figure was boosted by a weak comparison to March 2020, when coronavirus shutdowns began in the US.
3月份美国企业获得的产品和服务价格增长超过预期,可能引发市场对经济从疫情中反弹后通胀上升的担忧。 美国劳工统计局周五表示,生产者价格指数经季节性调整后前进了1%。经济学家原本预计该数字将稳定在2月份的0.5%。 涨幅受到能源价格的推动,反映出汽油成本的大幅上涨。食品价格也走高。 不包括一些服务和波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心PPI上涨了0.6%,而2月份的增幅为0.2%。 Nationwide高级经济学家Ben Ayers表示,投入成本上升可能会导致消费者支付的价格上升,并补充道:"更多证据表明,在向后流行病经济过渡的过程中,未来几个月通胀率应该会弹升。" "最终,我们预计这种通胀高峰将是暂时的,因为今年晚些时候材料供应回升,以应对Covid工作场所限制的取消,并加大招聘和总产量。" 美联储最新政策会议纪要显示,多数官员认为通胀前景面临的风险“大致平衡”,这表明该央行在通过190万美元支出法案后,正在摆脱对经济过热的担忧。 上个月,美联储上调了对经济增长和通胀的预测,但表示预计至少在2024年之前不会加息。 由于投资者等待PPI报告,美国10年期国债收益率最高升至1.69%。基准收益率近期上涨0.04个百分点至1.67%。 生产者物价在未经调整的基础上同比上涨4.2%,为2011年9月以来最大涨幅。不过,与2020年3月美国开始冠状病毒停产相比,年化数据受到提振。
US states to receive fewer Johnson & Johnson doses after plant mix-up
US states will receive 86 per cent fewer doses of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine next week, according to figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, following production problems at a manufacturing plant in Baltimore. The number of the single-shot vaccine doses allocated face a sharp drop next week after 15m doses were ruined at a plant in Baltimore run by Emergent BioSolutions. More than 4.9m J&J doses were allocated in the week beginning April 5 while 700,000 will be given out from April 12. J&J has been grappling with manufacturing issues after workers at the Baltimore plant mixed ingredients for the single-shot vaccine with those for the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, which is made at the same factory. On Saturday, J&J said it would “assume full responsibility” for the plant and increase the numbers of people responsible for manufacturing and quality at the facility. J&J said it expects to deliver nearly 100m single-shot doses of its Covid-19 vaccine to the US government by the end of May.
根据美国疾病控制和预防中心的数据,下周美国各州将收到少86%的强生公司冠状病毒疫苗剂量,此前巴尔的摩一家制造厂的生产问题。 下周分配的单针疫苗剂量的数量面临急剧下降后,在巴尔的摩的一家工厂由Emergent BioSolutions运行的15m剂量被毁。 在4月5日开始的一周内,超过490万支J&J疫苗被分配,而70万支将从4月12日开始发放。 在巴尔的摩工厂的工人将单针疫苗的成分与牛津/阿斯利康注射疫苗的成分混在一起后,J&J一直在努力解决生产问题。 周六,J&J公司表示将对该工厂“承担全部责任”,并增加该工厂负责生产和质量的人员数量。 J&J表示,预计在5月底前向美国政府交付近1亿剂Covid-19疫苗的单针剂量。
Doctors in Turkey hit out at government as cases hit new high
Doctors in Turkey have accused the government of “abandoning” its duty to control coronavirus as the number of new daily cases and deaths hit an all-time high. Turkey on Thursday recorded almost 56,000 new cases of Covid-19, the highest rate across Europe, according to the health ministry. Almost 260 people died. Fahrettin Koca, health minister, blamed in part a new variant of coronavirus, although he also recognised that a recent lifting of social distancing restrictions had contributed to the surge. New cases have soared almost six-fold since March 1, when the government reopened restaurants and schools. Ali Ihsan Okten of the Turkish Medical Association (TTB), the country’s largest group of doctors, claimed the government had “prioritised commercial and political concerns” over healthcare. “The reason for this failure in the struggle against the pandemic … is a governance style that has abandoned its duty to society,” he told an online news conference on Friday. Turkey is reimposing some restrictions to get case numbers under control. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president, said last week that in-person dining would be halted again when the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan begins on April 13. Less than 10 per cent of Turkey’s population of 82m is fully vaccinated. Speaking to the Hurriyet newspaper, Koca acknowledged there had been delays in the shipments of vaccines from China’s Sinovac, with whom Turkey has contracted for 50m doses. But he said he was confident that all adults over the age of 40 would be vaccinated by the end of June, thanks in part to doses from BioNTech/Pfizer and a possible purchase of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
土耳其医生指责政府 "放弃 "控制冠状病毒的职责,因为每日新增病例和死亡人数创下历史新高。 土耳其卫生部的数据显示,周四土耳其新录得近5.6万例Covid-19病例,为全欧洲最高。近260人死亡。 卫生部长Fahrettin Koca指责部分冠状病毒的新变种,虽然他也承认最近解除社会距离限制有助于激增。 自3月1日政府重新开放餐馆和学校以来,新病例已经飙升了近6倍。 土耳其最大的医生团体土耳其医学协会(TTB)的阿里-伊桑-奥克滕(Ali Ihsan Okten)声称,政府“优先考虑商业和政治问题”,而不是医疗保健。 "在抗击疫情的斗争中失败的原因......是一种放弃了对社会责任的治理风格,"他在周五的在线新闻发布会上说。 土耳其正在重新实施一些限制措施,以控制病例数。总统雷杰普-塔伊普-埃尔多安上周表示,当伊斯兰斋月4月13日开始时,将再次停止亲自用餐。 在土耳其8200万人口中,只有不到10%的人完全接种了疫苗。科卡对《胡里耶特报》说,他承认中国华锐公司的疫苗运输出现了延误,土耳其已与该公司签订了5000万剂疫苗的合同。 但他说,他有信心所有40岁以上的成年人都能在6月底前接种疫苗,这部分得益于BioNTech/辉瑞公司的疫苗,以及可能购买俄罗斯的Sputnik V疫苗。
EMA investigates potential link between Johnson & Johnson vaccine and blood clots
The European Medicines Agency is probing a potential causal link between four “serious cases of unusual blood clots” with a low platelet count and the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine. The EMA made the disclosure on Friday, noting that the vaccine is only being used in the US. “One case occurred in a clinical trial and three cases occurred during the vaccine rollout in the USA,” the regulator said. “One of them was fatal.” It added it was “currently not clear whether there is a causal association” between the shot and the adverse event. J&J said it was working with experts and regulators to assess the data. “Our close tracking of side effects has revealed a small number of very rare events following vaccination,” it said. “At present, no clear causal relationship has been established between these rare events and the Janssen Covid-19 vaccine.”  New York-listed shares in the drug maker edged 0.4 per cent lower. Earlier this week, the EMA said that blood clots in the brain, coupled with low platelet counts and bleeding, should be listed as a very rare side effect of the Oxford/AstraZeneca shot. The UK and other countries have restricted its use to older patients only. The J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines use the same type of technology, using a viral vector to spur the immune system to fend off the virus that causes Covid-19. The J&J shot, administered in one dose, was approved for use in Europe last month, but rollout has not begun yet. The EMA also on Friday said it had begun probing whether capillary leak syndrome, in which fluid leaks from blood vessels causing a drop in blood pressure and tissue swelling, was causally linked to the AstraZeneca shot. The regulator said it had received reports of five such cases.
欧洲药品管理局正在探究四例血小板数量低的 "严重异常血栓病例 "与强生公司冠状病毒疫苗之间的潜在因果关系。 EMA在周五进行了披露,并指出该疫苗只在美国使用。"一例发生在临床试验中,三例发生在疫苗在美国推广期间,"监管机构说。"其中一例是致命的。" 它补充说,“目前尚不清楚该疫苗与不良事件之间是否存在因果关系”。 J&J表示,它正在与专家和监管机构合作评估这些数据。"我们对副作用的密切跟踪显示,接种疫苗后出现了少量非常罕见的事件,"它说。"目前,这些罕见事件与杨森Covid-19疫苗之间尚未建立明确的因果关系。"  这家药品制造商在纽约上市的股票微跌0.4%。 本周早些时候,欧洲药品管理局表示,脑部血栓,加上血小板计数低和出血,应该被列为牛津/阿斯利康疫苗的一种非常罕见的副作用。英国和其他国家已经限制其只对老年患者使用。 J&J和阿斯利康疫苗使用的是同一类技术,使用病毒载体来刺激免疫系统抵御导致Covid-19的病毒。 上个月,J&J公司注射的一剂疫苗被批准在欧洲使用,但还没有开始推广。 EMA上周五还表示,已经开始探究毛细血管渗漏综合征,即液体从血管中渗出导致血压下降和组织肿胀,是否与阿斯利康注射液有因果关系。监管机构表示,已收到五起此类病例的报告。
Slight uptick in Covid infections in England, says ONS
Coronavirus infections continue to be broadly flat across most of the UK, according to the weekly Office for National Statistics survey, though there were “early signs of an increase in the latest week, which balances out a small decrease seen the previous week.” In England, an estimated 162,000 people had Covid-19 in the week ending April 3, equating to around 1 in 340 people -- a deterioration from 1 in 380 a week before. Sarah Crofts, Senior Statistician for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “We’re continuing to see a mixed picture across the UK, with infection rates decreasing in Wales and Scotland but appearing level in Northern Ireland. “We have seen the infection rate [in England] fluctuate over the most recent weeks across different age groups and regions,” she added. “This week, for example, we are seeing an increase in those aged 50 to 69 years, decreases in the South West and North East, and numbers increasing in the South East region.” In Wales just 1 in 800 people tested positive this week. The figure for Scotland was 1 in 410 and for Northern Ireland 1 in 300.
根据英国国家统计局每周的调查,英国大部分地区的冠状病毒感染率继续大体持平,尽管 "最近一周有增加的早期迹象,这平衡了前一周的小幅下降"。 在英格兰,在截至4月3日的一周内,估计有16.2万人患有Covid-19,相当于每340人中就有1人患有科维德-19--比前一周的每380人中就有1人恶化。 科维德-19感染调查的高级统计师Sarah Crofts说。"我们继续看到英国各地的情况喜忧参半 威尔士和苏格兰的感染率有所下降,但北爱尔兰的感染率却出现了水平。 "她补充说:"我们看到最近几周,英格兰的感染率在不同年龄组和地区出现波动。"例如,本周,我们看到50至69岁的人增加,西南和东北地区减少,东南地区的人数增加。" 在威尔士,本周每800人中只有1人检测呈阳性。苏格兰的数字是1/410,北爱尔兰的数字是1/300。
Europe and US stocks hold on to gains during record-setting week
European and US stock markets were poised to end a record-setting week on a steady footing, supported by bond market tranquility, as investors banked on an economic recovery from Covid-19.  The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 traded close to its record closing level from Thursday after recovering all its losses from the Covid-19 pandemic earlier in the week. The FTSE 100 dipped 0.2 per cent, having advanced 2 per cent over recent sessions to hit a one-year high. The solid start to second-quarter stock trading this week came as the US Treasury market strengthened. Yields on the 10-year note ticked up on Friday to around 1.67 per cent but remained well below a high of 1.72 per cent on Monday. The pull back in yields indicates a boost to prices for the crucially important bonds, which endured heavy bouts of selling last month. Volatility in the bond market spooked stock traders as investors questioned the US Federal Reserve’s ability to hold the line on monetary policy.  “The fact that Treasury yields have stopped rising is quite important,” said Sunil Krishnan, head of multi-asset funds at Aviva Investors. “It does remove a headwind for equity markets.” Read more here.
欧洲范围内的Stoxx 600指数在收复本周早些时候科维德-19疫情带来的全部损失后,从周四开始接近创纪录的收盘水平。富时100指数下跌0.2%,近几个交易日上涨2%,创下一年来的新高。 本周二季度股票交易开局稳健,美国国债市场走强。10年期国债收益率周五上调至1.67%左右,但仍远低于周一1.72%的高位。 收益率的回落表明,上个月经历了严重的抛售阵痛的至关重要的债券的价格受到了提振。债券市场的波动吓坏了股票交易员,因为投资者质疑美国联邦储备委员会在货币政策上守住阵地的能力。  "国债收益率停止上涨的事实相当重要,"Aviva Investors多资产基金主管Sunil Krishnan表示。"这确实为股市消除了一个阻力。" 在此阅读更多内容。
Germany to enforce ‘emergency break’ as federal government takes powers from regions
Germany is to legislate for an “emergency brake” that will mandate tough lockdowns in parts of the country with over 100 infections per 100,000 people, as the federal government claws powers from the regions to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. The “brake” will be incorporated into the Infection Protection Law, which has been the government’s main tool for fighting the virus since the pandemic broke out. Ulrike Demmer, a spokeswoman for chancellor Angela Merkel, said the federal government had reached an agreement with the governments of Germany’s 16 regions to amend the Infection Protection Law. She said the federal cabinet would approve the amendment next Tuesday and send it to the Bundestag. She said the amendment would set out what restrictions can be imposed in areas where the incidence rate exceeds 100 coronavirus infections per 100,000 people over seven days. “The goal is to create national rules,” she said. At the moment, the 16 federal states enjoy broad discretion to enforce their own rules, such as shutting schools or imposing night-time curfews. The amendment would standardise the pandemic response across Germany. Demmer was speaking days after a TV interview with Merkel in which she sharply criticised some of Germany’s regional leaders for failing to activate the emergency brake, which stipulates lockdown measures above an incidence rate of 100. She said she would be taking time to “think over” what the government’s response to this could be.
德国将立法实施“紧急制动”,强制要求每10万人感染人数超过100人的部分地区实行严格的封锁,因为联邦政府要从各地区手中夺取应对冠状病毒大流行的权力。 这一 "刹车 "将被纳入《感染防护法》,该法自疫情爆发以来一直是政府对抗病毒的主要工具。 德国总理默克尔的发言人乌尔里克-德默尔说,联邦政府已经与德国16个地区的政府达成协议,修改《感染保护法》。她说,联邦内阁将在下周二批准该修正案,并将其提交给联邦议院。 她说,修正案将规定在发病率超过每10万人在7天内感染100例冠状病毒的地区可以实施哪些限制。 "我们的目标是制定全国性的规则,"她说。目前,16个联邦州享有广泛的自由裁量权,可以执行自己的规则,如关闭学校或实施夜间宵禁。该修正案将使德国各地的大流行病应对措施标准化。 德默尔是在接受电视采访几天后发表讲话的,她在采访中尖锐地批评德国一些地区领导人没有启动紧急刹车,规定发病率超过100的封锁措施。她说,她将花时间 "仔细考虑 "政府对此的应对措施。
Kyiv’s mayor pleads for government to impose national lockdown
The mayor of Ukraine’s capital city is urging the country’s government to impose a national lockdown to curb a peak in coronavirus cases as vaccinations continue to stall. “Ukraine today is in the top three European countries in terms of the number of patients per day and the number of deaths from COVID-19,” Vitaly Klitschko said. “Only since the beginning of this month, since April 1, 3,556 people have died in the country. 392 patients have died in Kyiv. This in 9 days!” He continued: “How many more people have to get sick, how many more to die for the government, for the central government to understand that immediate measures are needed at the state level? Otherwise, in the absence of mass vaccination, the country will face disaster. Therefore, I urge the government to immediately consider introducing a national lockdown. A real lockdown.” Kyiv this week followed other cities in shutting down public transportation except for essential workers following the closure of schools, shopping centres and restaurants late last month. The restrictions were imposed as part of the government’s so-called “adaptive quarantine,” which allows regional governments to impose necessary restrictions.  Deep nationwide lockdowns imposed last spring helped Ukraine largely avoid the pandemic’s first wave, but the country has now recorded nearly 2m confirmed cases and 36,381 deaths. The number of new daily cases is approaching 20,000 with total active cases at 392,189. Klitschko’s comments came hours after Ukraine’s health minister Maksym Stepanov predicted there would be between 25,000 and 30,000 new daily cases “within a week or ten days”.
乌克兰首都市长正在敦促该国政府实施全国封锁,以遏制冠状病毒病例的高峰,因为疫苗接种继续停滞不前。 "乌克兰如今每天因COVID-19导致的患者人数和死亡人数都位居欧洲国家前三,"维塔利-克里琴科说。 "仅从本月初,4月1日以来,全国已有3556人死亡。392名患者在基辅死亡。这是在9天内发生的!" 他继续说道。"还有多少人要生病,还有多少人要死亡,政府才会明白,中央政府才会明白,在国家层面需要立即采取措施? 否则,在没有大规模疫苗接种的情况下,国家将面临灾难。因此,我敦促政府立即考虑实行全国封锁。真正的封锁。" 继上月底关闭学校、购物中心和餐馆后,基辅本周也跟随其他城市关闭了除基本工作人员外的公共交通。这些限制是作为政府所谓的 "适应性检疫 "的一部分,允许地区政府实施必要的限制。  去年春天实施的全国范围内的深度封锁帮助乌克兰在很大程度上避免了疫情的第一波,但该国目前已经记录了近200万例确诊病例,36381人死亡。每天新增病例数接近2万,活跃病例总数为392,189例。 克利奇科的评论是在乌克兰卫生部长马克西姆-斯捷潘诺夫预测 "一周或十天内 "每天将有2.5万至3万新病例后几个小时发表的。
Women not at greater risk from blood clots linked to AstraZeneca jab, health bodies say
卫生机构称,妇女患与阿斯利康抗生素有关的血栓风险并不高-|-健康机构称,妇女不会因阿斯利康注射而有更大的血栓风险-|-卫生机构说,女性与Astrazeneca Jab相关的血栓没有更大的风险
Health authorities across Europe have stressed that the rare blood clots linked to the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine are as common in men as women, as experts continue to puzzle over the mechanism causing the strange constellation of sometimes fatal symptoms.  Early reports on the clots from Europe stressed that the vast majority of cases were observed in women — a phenomenon that seemed to make sense given that the specific kind of blood clot gaining attention is known to afflict women roughly twice as much as men. In late March, Germany announced that there had been 31 cases in total, 29 of which affected women. But at a press conference held by the UK medicines regulator on Wednesday, Sir Munir Pirmohamed, chair of the UK’s Commission on Human Medicines, a government advisory body, said the incidence rate of rare blood clots showed “no difference” between men and women. The European Medicines Agency also said there had been no indication that there was a gender more at risk. The pronouncement from two of the most established international health agencies has turned early understanding of the condition on its head, and eliminated some of the most compelling hypotheses about the scientific mechanism causing the response. Read more here.
来自欧洲的关于血块的早期报告强调,绝大多数病例都是在女性中观察到的--这种现象似乎是有道理的,因为众所周知,获得关注的特定类型的血块对女性的影响大约是男性的两倍。3月下旬,德国宣布总共有31例,其中29例影响到妇女。 但在英国药品监管机构周三举行的新闻发布会上,英国政府咨询机构--英国人类药品委员会主席穆尼尔-皮尔莫哈梅德爵士表示,罕见血栓的发病率显示男女之间“没有差别”。 欧洲药品管理局也表示,没有任何迹象表明有性别更容易受到伤害。 两家最成熟的国际卫生机构的声明颠覆了对该病症的早期认识,并消除了一些关于引起该反应的科学机制的最令人信服的假设。 在此阅读更多内容。
German health minister calls for fresh lockdown as hospital admissions surge
Germany’s health minister has called for a strict lockdown to break the third wave of the pandemic, saying the country’s hospitals were in danger of reaching breaking point amid a large influx of patients with Covid-19. “We need a lockdown to break the current wave and bring the incidence level well below 100 [per 100,000 people over 7 days],” Jens Spahn told reporters    “That could build a bridge into a phase when we can open up again, supported by testing.” He said a tougher lockdown might mean people would be required to work from home and stop all unnecessary travel. He also raised the possibility of night-time curfews and other moves to reduce social contact. Germany recorded 25,464 new cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours, a big increase on the day before, and 296 deaths. Officials said the real number could be higher as many people did not get tested over the Easter holiday.  Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s main public health agency, said the situation in the country’s hospitals was “very, very serious”, with ICUs “filling up rapidly”.  There were now 4,500 people with Covid-19 being treated in German intensive care wards, he said, and 700 of them arrived in the last week alone. Some 85 per cent of them needed to be ventilated, he said. Spahn said Germany had so far administered 17m doses of vaccine. Around 15 per cent of the population had received a first shot, and almost 6 per cent had been given two.
德国卫生部长呼吁严格封锁以打破第三波疫情,称在大量Covid-19患者涌入的情况下,德国的医院有可能达到爆发点。 "我们需要封锁来打破目前的浪潮,使发病水平远远低于100天,"Jens Spahn告诉记者。    "这可能会建立一个桥梁,进入一个阶段,我们可以在测试的支持下再次开放。" 他说,更严格的封锁可能意味着人们将被要求在家工作,并停止所有不必要的旅行。他还提出了夜间宵禁和其他减少社会接触的举动的可能性。 德国在过去24小时内录得25,464例新的冠状病毒病例,比前一天大幅增加,296人死亡。官员说,真实数字可能更高,因为许多人在复活节假期没有接受检测。  德国主要公共卫生机构罗伯特-科赫研究所负责人洛塔尔-维勒说,该国医院的情况 "非常、非常严重",重症监护室“迅速爆满”。  他说,现在有4500名Covid-19患者在德国重症监护病房接受治疗,其中700名患者仅在上周就到了医院。他说,其中约85%的人需要通风。 斯帕恩说,到目前为止,德国已经注射了1700万剂疫苗。大约15%的人口已经接受了第一针,近6%的人已经接受了两针。
France to mix vaccine doses in response to concerns over AstraZeneca jab
法国将混合疫苗剂量以回应对阿斯利康抗生素的担忧-|-为了应对人们对阿斯利康疫苗的担忧,法国将混合疫苗剂量-|-法国混合疫苗剂量,以应对Astrazeneca jab的担忧
France will give the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine as a second dose to people aged under 55 who have already received a first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, as part of its response to concerns about rare blood clotting incidents. The decision was announced on Friday after a recommendation from the Haute Autorité de Santé, a panel of medical experts who advise the government. It will affect roughly 500,000 people under 55 who were given a first shot of AstraZeneca from early February to mid-March when they were eligible under the country’s strategy at the time of giving health care workers the vaccine. Other jabs were reserved for the elderly. When the blood clot concerns emerged, France changed course to use AstraZeneca vaccine only for people aged above 55. Nothing will change for this group, said the HAS. “Given that the protection of the Covid-19 vaccines begins to diminish after three months, these people need an additional dose,” said Élisabeth Bouvet, a vaccine expert and member of the HAS. At a press conference, the HAS recognized that the dose-mixing approach was not yet common or supported by large-scale clinical evidence, and called for additional studies to be carried out. In a statement, the HAS said that all the Covid-19 vaccines were aimed at the same spike protein “which supports this strategy”, as well as referring to early-stage, experimental trials in vaccines against HIV which use boosters that are different to the first shot. Even without clinical data to back the mixed-dose approach, Bouvet said that they believed it carried low risks of side effects and was likely to offer people sufficient protection. Health minister Olivier Veran told RTL radio on Friday that the approach was “totally logical” given European regulators’ analysis of the rare blood clotting side effect, and France’s adoption of an age restriction as a result.
法国将给55岁以下已经接受过第一剂牛津/阿斯利康注射疫苗的人注射第二剂辉瑞/生物NTech或Moderna疫苗,这是对罕见的血栓事件担忧的一部分。 该决定是在高级健康管理局(Haute Autorité de Santé)提出建议后于周五宣布的,该管理局是一个向政府提供建议的医学专家小组。 它将影响大约50万名55岁以下的人,他们从2月初到3月中旬接受了第一针阿斯利康的注射,当时他们有资格根据国家的战略给医护人员注射疫苗。其他的针剂则是为老年人保留的。 当血栓问题出现后,法国改变了方针,只对55岁以上的人使用阿斯利康疫苗。HAS表示,这个群体不会有任何改变。 疫苗专家、HAS成员Élisabeth Bouvet说:"鉴于Covid-19疫苗的保护作用在三个月后开始减弱,这些人需要额外的剂量"。 在新闻发布会上,HAS承认,剂量混合的方法还不常见,也没有大规模的临床证据支持,并呼吁开展更多的研究。 HAS在一份声明中表示,所有的Covid-19疫苗都是针对同一个尖峰蛋白,“这支持了这一策略”,同时也提到了针对HIV疫苗的早期阶段的实验性试验,这些试验使用了与第一针不同的增强剂。 即使没有临床数据来支持混合剂量的方法,Bouvet说,他们相信它的副作用风险很低,并有可能为人们提供足够的保护。 卫生部长Olivier Veran周五告诉RTL电台,鉴于欧洲监管机构对罕见的凝血副作用的分析,以及法国因此而采取的年龄限制,这种方法是“完全合理的”。
Norway’s prime minister to be fined after 13 family members attend dinner party
Norway’s prime minister is to be fined for breaking the country’s coronavirus rules by organising a 60th birthday dinner for 13 family members, becoming the most high-profile politician worldwide to be sanctioned for such a breach. Police said they would fine Erna Solberg NKr20,000 ($2,350) in an attempt to maintain public confidence in the laws used to fight the pandemic. The news is highly embarrassing for the centre-right prime minister as she fights for re-election later this year. Her Conservative party has suffered in opinion polls since she apologised last month for the episode. “The law is the same for everyone,” said Ole Saeverud, police chief in Norway’s south-east district, on Friday. He added: “Solberg is the country’s foremost leader, and has on numerous occasions fronted government decisions to counter the pandemic. “Therefore it is considered appropriate to give out a punishment in order to maintain public confidence in the rules on infection control.”
挪威总理将因违反国家冠状病毒规定,为13名家庭成员举办60岁生日晚宴而被罚款,成为全球因这种违规行为受到制裁的最引人注目的政治家。 警方表示,他们将对埃尔纳-索尔贝格罚款2万挪威克朗(2350美元),以维持公众对用于抗击疫情的法律的信心。 这个消息对于这位中右翼总理来说是非常尴尬的,因为她正在为今年晚些时候的连任而奋斗。自从她上个月为这一事件道歉以来,她的保守党在民意调查中受到了影响。 "法律对每个人都是一样的,"挪威东南部地区的警察局长Ole Saeverud周五表示。 他补充说:"索尔贝格是该国最重要的领导人,并在许多场合为政府应对疫情的决定打前站。 "因此,为了保持公众对感染控制规则的信心,认为给予处罚是合适的。"
Italy’s botched vaccine rollout highlights Draghi challenge
After the authorities in Italy’s Puglia region asked Antonio La Scala to conduct an audit of everyone who had been given a coronavirus vaccine, the findings left him in shock. Of the 140,000 people in the region who had received a jab having been classed as priority medical workers, thousands appeared to have no links with the healthcare industry. “We could immediately see the numbers didn’t add up . . . Puglia doesn’t have this many healthcare workers,” La Scala, head of the region’s medical inspection unit, said of his research carried out in mid-February. “We cross referenced the data with social security information and found there were many people getting doses with no right to them: friends of friends, associates, parents,” said the 52-year-old dubbed the “007 of vaccines” by the local press for his investigative skills. Puglia is perhaps the most vivid example of the dysfunctional vaccination rollout that has plagued the EU’s third-largest economy since Covid-19 jabs became available early in the year. As of the end of last week, 98 per cent of people in Puglia aged 70-79 were still waiting for a first dose, along with almost half of over 80s. Read more here.
在意大利普利亚地区当局要求安东尼奥-拉斯卡拉对每一个被注射冠状病毒疫苗的人进行审计后,调查结果让他感到震惊。 在该地区被列为重点医疗工作者的14万人中,接受过注射的人中,有数千人似乎与医疗行业没有联系。 "我们马上就能看出这些数字没有加起来......。普利亚没有这么多的医疗工作者,"该地区的医疗检查单位负责人La Scala在谈到他在2月中旬进行的研究时说。 "我们将这些数据与社保信息进行交叉比对,发现有很多人在没有权利的情况下获得剂量:朋友的朋友、同事、父母。"这位52岁的老人因其调查能力被当地媒体称为 "疫苗界的007"。 普利亚或许是自年初Covid-19注射剂上市以来,困扰这个欧盟第三大经济体的疫苗接种推广不正常的最生动例子。截至上周末,普利亚98%的70-79岁的人仍在等待第一剂疫苗,还有近一半的80岁以上的人在等待。 在此阅读更多内容。
PageGroup shares rally after recruiter boosted by strong March
Shares in PageGroup rallied 8 per cent in early trading after the UK-listed recruiter said it was on track to deliver full-year operating profit of at least £90m thanks to a strong end to the first quarter. Despite new lockdowns being imposed across several of its biggest markets, the FTSE 250 company said the strength of its performance in March had “increased confidence” in its outlook for the year. The coronavirus crisis has unsettled the jobs market. While PageGroup’s gross profits of £184.2m for the first three months of the year ticked up 1 per cent from the same period in 2020, they were down 9.9 per compared with 2019 levels. Quarterly profits fell year-on-year both in the UK and US. But the performance was stronger elsewhere. Steve Ingham, chief executive, said the group produced “record” numbers last month in Germany, Italy, Spain and South East Asia. He said the company now expected full-year operating profit between £90m and £100m. At this stage of the recovery, however, it was “not easy to determine whether the improved performance is the result of pent-up supply and demand, or the beginning of a sustainable trend”. Page reduced the number of recruiters earning fees by 882 last year, down 12.6 per cent on 2019 levels.
PageGroup的股价在早盘交易中上涨了8%,此前这家英国上市的招聘公司表示,由于第一季度的强劲结束,它有望实现至少9000万英镑的全年运营利润。 尽管其最大的几个市场都被实施了新的封锁,但这家富时250指数公司表示,3月份的强劲表现使其对今年的前景“更有信心”。 冠状病毒危机令就业市场动荡不安。虽然PageGroup今年前三个月的毛利润为1.842亿英镑,较2020年同期勾升1%,但与2019年的水平相比下降了9.9。英国和美国的季度利润均同比下降。 但其他地区的表现更为强劲。首席执行官Steve Ingham表示,该集团上个月在德国、意大利、西班牙和东南亚生产了 "创纪录 "的数字。 他说,公司现在预计全年营业利润在9000万英镑至1亿英镑之间。 然而,在复苏的现阶段,"不容易确定业绩的改善是供不应求的结果,还是可持续趋势的开始"。 Page去年赚取费用的招聘者数量减少了882人,比2019年的水平下降了12.6%。
Live Q&A: How is the Covid vaccine rollout going?
People in the UK aged under 30 are to be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine after a link was found between rare blood clots in the brain and the AstraZeneca shot. The UK’s medical regulator said people aged 18 to 29 should preferably be offered either the BioNTech/Pfizer or the Moderna jab as an alternative. But what does this mean for those who have already had one dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine? Can you mix vaccines? Why have other countries introduced much tighter restrictions than the UK on the AstraZeneca vaccine, such as limiting it to over 60s? Clive Cookson, the FT’s science editor, and Hannah Kuchler, our pharma correspondent, will answer your questions about vaccine rollouts across the world and emerging variants of the virus throughout the day today. Post your queries on this page and our FT reporters will drop in regularly on Friday to answer them.
英国30岁以下的人将被提供牛津/阿斯利康疫苗的替代品,因为发现脑部罕见的血栓与阿斯利康疫苗之间存在联系。 英国医疗监管机构表示,18岁至29岁的人最好应提供BioNTech/辉瑞或Moderna注射剂作为替代方案。但这对于已经注射过一剂阿斯利康疫苗的人来说,意味着什么?能否混合使用疫苗?为什么其他国家对阿斯利康疫苗的限制比英国严格得多,比如限制60岁以上的人接种? 英国《金融时报》科学编辑Clive Cookson和我们的制药记者Hannah Kuchler将在今天全天回答您关于疫苗在全球范围内的推广和新出现的病毒变种的问题。 将您的疑问发布在本页面上,我们的FT记者将在周五定期来回答您的问题。



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